CPS and city finances have Mayor Brandon Johnson submerged in debt crises. A third financial crisis at the CTA is imminent and could sink the mayor
Ahead of the Chicago Transit Authority’s (CTA) massive 2026 fiscal cliff, Mayor Brandon Johnson is warning Springfield not to hold Chicago hostage for “political gain,” whatever that means. In the meantime, Johnson has arrogantly endorsed the embattled CTA president, Dorval Carter, in whom many city and state leaders have lost confidence. At the same moment Johnson is expressing unqualified support for Carter’s leadership of the CTA, he is summarily rejecting any consideration of regional transit agency consolidation which would reduce costs while improving coordination.
It is fairly obvious Mayor Johnson views the CTA and Chicago public schools similarly: The mayor is looking for a state bailout for the transit system while opposing any fundamental changes that would address the reasons the CTA, like Chicago’s schools, is facing its worst financial crisis in its history.
Akin to the city’s failing schools, this looming catastrophe follows the transit district frittering away billions in COVID-19 relief. Of course, Johnson will resort to his go-to themes of racism and historic disinvestment to scapegoat others for the city’s failed leadership on public transit.
The CTA is facing a budget deficit of $577 million for fiscal 2026, when the last of the COVID money is exhausted. As a percentage of budget (almost 25 percent), the deficit dwarfs the historic deficits both the city and schools are facing. Meanwhile, there will be added costs to the district from the need to cover the Red Line Extension. With costs now projected at $5.6 billion or $1 billion per mile for construction, the line will never create the ridership to cover operations and maintenance costs.
Neither CTA President Carter nor Mayor Johnson fully grasp the severity of the disaster in front of them. With COVID cash evaporating next year, the CTA’s financial crisis will be almost entirely found in plummeting ridership fueled by city’s failure to provide a safe form of transit for the public. Public safety is both the reason and the solution to CTA’s woes.
CTA ridership remains at only 60 percent of pre-pandemic levels (2019). Rail ridership is down 46 percent. The fare box revenues cover barely one-fifth of operating costs. As crime continues to drive away riders, violence on the trains hurts the CTA’s ability to recruit and retain staff, which hurts service reliability.
A WBEZ survey of CTA riders conducted in 2024 concluded there is a real perception the CTA is unsafe. Almost half (45 percent) said they felt “somewhat unsafe” or “very unsafe” riding a bus or train, while a similar percentage (47 percent) said they felt “fairly safe.” Only seven percent of respondents said they felt “very safe” riding a bus or train in the past 30 days. That is a disaster for any public transit system.
Also ignored by Carter and Johnson is the direct link between public safety and reliable service. The general perception about safety is shared by CTA transit operators. The unsafe conditions across the CTA has a direct impact on transit operators’ work — creating morale issues, impacting their productivity and contributing to absenteeism. It also undermines the transit system’s ability to retain and recruit transit operators, which in turn leads to a range of common public transit problems, including overcrowding, schedule delays, or gaps in service.
CTA currently has $88.47 million budgeted for security services next year. Unfortunately, most of it is spent on private security who are poorly trained, unarmed and lack the power of arrest. Private security is no deterrent to crime. Only 130 police officers, roughly equivalent to the size of the mayor’s security detail, are currently assigned full time to transit duty to cover 79 stations, 146 platforms, and 335 trains. By comparison, New York City has over 1,000 NYPD Transit Bureau officers assigned to the Metropolitan Transportation Authority. The elimination of private security contracts alone would fund over 400 additional officers for the CTA.
The transit police would have “manned posts” on all major CTA stations and bus terminals, with patrols walking the train platforms and riding the trains both in uniform and undercover. Panic buttons installed and maintained would ensure transit officers are alerted not only by the Office of Emergency Management but directly by the manned security booths. This ensures a constant police presence and immediate response to incidents.
The CTA’s public transit unit would coordinate with METRA Police, Amtrak Police, Illinois State Police and university police departments. This would add more law enforcement personnel to public transportation in Chicago. Officers from other departments and agencies would be provided a “police transit pass” to encourage a larger law enforcement presence among riders.
Enhanced police presence should also be supported by the passage of a “City Nuisance Ordinance” that ensures there are serious consequences for those who damage public or private property, disrupt the public way, interfere in commerce or harass city residents and travelers. Chicago needs to exhibit the same vigor in punishing these individuals as it does in pursuit of law-abiding residents and visitors for driving their cars past the city’s red-light and speed cameras or for violating parking rules.
Of course, some will oppose boosting security or increasing police presence by arguing about the failure to address the underlying causes of escalating crime on public transportation. Some even demand that social workers ride the trains to de-escalate problems. None of these arguments will lead to residents feeling more safe or more inclined to resume riding CTA trains or buses nor will it improve the transit worker recruitment, retention, and safety so critical to service delivery.
As of 2023, ridership was at a mere 60 percent of pre-pandemic levels, yet the CTA budget grew by 30 percent. Unfortunately, much of that growth went towards sustaining the CTA’s bureaucracy and not towards improving service. Nearly half of all CTA employees — or 5,154 of 10,588 — work in administration, management, and support roles. The CTA can improve its situation by both reducing overall personnel costs and increasing the number of transit operators to improve service.
Another solution to save significant money in the long run involves consolidating regional transit agencies. Several polls show a substantial majority of Illinois residents favor combining Metra, Pace, the CTA, and the Regional Transit Authority. In 2024, state legislators proposed the Metropolitan Mobility Act, which would create a single transit system out of the agencies. There are real savings to be had, operational efficiencies to be gained, and public safety to be improved by such consolidations.
Finally, restoring and maintaining ridership requires the CTA to create a commercial environment that draws more people to public transportation. Chicago’s downtown office vacancy rate stands at over 25 percent, well above the national rate of 19 percent. The most straightforward way to ensure heightened demand for public transit is by bringing workers and residents back to the city and by pushing development along transportation corridors.
The extension to the Red Line will pose a significant challenge to Mayor Johnson, CTA President Carter, and lawmakers in Springfield. One of the more inexplicable aspects of the Red Line extension was that there already is rail service to the Far South Side provided by the Metra Electric commuter line, with multiple stops in the neighborhood, plus additional stations and branches serving the South Side. All told, there are five commuter rail lines in Chicago south of 95th that carry thousands of people every day. A mass transit line already existed, but convenience was not the goal for lawmakers when the extension was conceived.
Unfortunately, the Red Line has become an equity issue. Meanwhile, as part of the effort to block federal spending cuts and guaranteeing projects it politically favors, the outgoing Biden Administration is attempting to lock the project in by contract. As reported by Crain’s in December, a funding agreement “will contractually obligate $1.9 billion in federal funding to the project, solidifying the federal government’s commitment a month before President-elect Donald Trump takes office.
The city can help the CTA by building an economic corridor along the Red Line as well as other lines, to boost ridership. Housing can be promoted through looser zoning restrictions. Vacant residential and commercial properties can be secured by the city and turned over to local developers along with Opportunity Zone and city property tax abatements to spur initial investment, restoration, and investment.
Chicago is facing financial meltdowns on three fronts: The city budget, Chicago Public Schools and the Chicago Transit Authority. By far, the most severe of these crises is the CTA. However, the primary reason for the CTA’s financial misfortunes is crystal clear: The drop in ridership and increasingly bloated bureaucracy. Also clear are the solutions — restoring ridership by making public transportation safe for riders and transit workers and cutting bureaucracy while prioritizing the staffing of transit workers. Unfortunately, under current CTA leadership and Mayor Johnson, Chicago will continue to witness the CTA slide into oblivion. Neither see the real problem and neither will offer any real solutions.
