You can’t always get what you want
“You can’t always get what you want.
But if you try sometime,
You just might find,
You get what you need.”
— Mick Jagger/Keith Richards
The Rolling Stones are rarely cited in Political Science classrooms, but in the case of Chicago, their famous lyrics are apropos.
A recent Harris Poll confirmed what many of us have long suspected: The vast majority of Chicagoans want a politicallt moderate mayor. Yet, we haven’t had one for nearly a decade. Why is that?
Low voter turnout
First, Chicago mayoral elections notoriously suffer from low turnout.
In the 2023 Chicago mayoral election, voter participation was particularly dismal. The initial election on February 28, 2023, saw a turnout of approximately 32.6 percent, with 516,674 ballots cast. The subsequent runoff on April 4, 2023, experienced a slight increase, with turnout reaching about 35 percent.
The 2019 Chicago mayoral election displayed a similar level of engagement. The first round, held on February 26, 2019, recorded a turnout of 35.45 percent, with 560,701 ballots cast. The runoff on April 2, 2019, saw a slight decrease, with turnout at 33.08 percent and 526,886 ballots cast.
These figures indicate a consistent pattern: Chicago’s voter participation in mayoral elections hovers in the mid-30 percent range.
Demographics and voting patterns
Second, the city’s ethnic demographics play a major role. Chicago’s population is roughly one-third Black, one-third Hispanic, and one-third White. However, only Black voters tend to vote as a bloc. Hispanics have yet to rally behind a strong ethnic candidate, and the White vote remains divided.
As a result, relatively unknown candidates have emerged as victors in the last two mayoral elections. In 2019, Toni Preckwinkle was pushed aside by Lori Lightfoot — not because Lightfoot was overwhelmingly popular, but because Preckwinkle was deeply unpopular. A similar dynamic played out in 2023. A relatively moderate-to-conservative candidate, Paul Vallas, won the first round of voting but lost in the runoff to another largely unknown candidate, Brandon Johnson.
Vallas, a lifelong Democrat, was unfairly portrayed as a Republican — an accusation that, in Chicago, is akin to being labeled a Nazi. Even so, his campaign nearly succeeded.
The consequence: Incompetent mayors
As a result, the last two mayors have been clownishly inept. Those who cheered Lightfoot’s departure had their hopes dashed when Johnson managed the virtually impossible feat of making people miss Lori.
Clearly, something is fundamentally wrong. It doesn’t take a political scientist to recognize that, given the political strength of the Black community, any Black Democrat — regardless of their name recognition or policies—has a strong chance of being elected. This is the price of the identity politics that have dominated Democratic circles for years.
Thus, we ended up with two consecutive mayors who have failed miserably. And it’s not just their critics who think so — many who voted for them now regret it.
In the 2019 election, the outcome was arguably a lose-lose scenario. Preckwinkle might have been even worse than Lightfoot — after all, she was the one who appointed the atrocious Kim Foxx, the State’s Attorney who oversaw a crime wave that reversed decades of public safety progress since the crack cocaine epidemic of the 1990s.
Lightfoot lacked a strong base of support, which is why she finished well out of contention in the 2023 election. Johnson, however, has the backing of the powerful Chicago Teachers Union (CTU), making him far more difficult to dislodge. But public opinion is shifting.
The public wants a change
According to Will Johnson, CEO of The Harris Poll, in a February 25 letter to the Chicago Tribune, a December 2024 poll of 1,007 Chicago and Cook County residents found that:
• 92 percent of Chicago adults believe the mayor should govern with the entire city in mind, not just his supporters.
• 60 percent say Johnson has made too many enemies to govern effectively.
• Only 23 percent of Chicagoans approve of Johnson’s performance and believe he deserves reelection.
• Taxes and public safety are the city’s top concerns, with two-thirds of Chicagoans disagreeing with Johnson’s priorities.
• 72 percent yearn for a moderate mayor rather than a progressive or conservative.
• 75 percent believe unions and other special interest groups have too much clout.
• Nearly 90 percent say Chicago needs common-sense policies to get back on track.
Another poll conducted by M3 Strategies between February 20-21, 2025, found that only 6.6 percent of likely Chicago voters approved of Johnson’s performance, while about 80 percent disapproved
A rare victory for moderation
Although Chicago hasn’t yet gotten what it wants, it did get what it needed in the election of a new Cook County State’s Attorney to replace the execrable Kim Foxx.
In the 2024 Democratic primary, former appellate judge Eileen O’Neill Burke narrowly defeated Clayton Harris III, a public policy lecturer and Preckwinkle’s hand-picked successor to Foxx. Harris made Foxx look like a tough-on-crime prosecutor by comparison.
The race was exceptionally close, with O’Neill Burke winning by just 1,566 votes out of over 527,000 cast. O’Neill Burke then decisively defeated Republican Bob Fioretti and Libertarian Andrew Charles Kopinski in the general election, securing 64.8 percent of the vote.
Upon taking office, O’Neill Burke swiftly revised pre-trial detention policies, requiring prosecutors to seek detention for individuals charged with serious offenses such as murder and violent felonies. This initiative aims to enhance community safety while aligning with the principles of the SAFE-T Act.
Lessons for the next mayoral election
What lessons can we learn from this triumph of common sense and moderation?
1. Suburban voters were key to Burke’s victory — but they don’t get to vote for the mayor of Chicago.
2. Burke ran on common-sense policies that resonated with the electorate.
3. Turnout was not a factor — it was abysmal, with just 527,285 votes cast in the primary, a significant drop from the 892,592 votes cast in 2020.
In short, we dodged a bullet.
How to win the next mayoral race
To elect a competent mayor, we need a new strategy:
1. The time has come for Chicago’s first Hispanic mayor. The Hispanic community must unite behind a strong candidate (perhaps Susana Mendoza) and vote as a bloc — just as Black voters do.
2. The campaign must aggressively target disaffected Black voters by highlighting failures in education and the deeply unpopular sanctuary city policies.
3. The campaign must be ruthlessly negative, detailing Johnson’s failures much like Thomas Jefferson’s indictment of King George III in the Declaration of Independence:
• Withholding documents and obstructing investigations.
• Failing to report valuable gifts.
• Pushing massive tax increases and reckless spending.
• Saddling the city with $830 million in unnecessary debt.
• Protecting a bloated 32,000-strong city workforce from needed layoffs or pay cuts.
• Being a pawn of the CTU, prioritizing union greed over student success.
Is Rahmbo in the mix?
Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel has recently intensified his public presence, leading to speculation about his potential return to Chicago’s political scene. During a Chicago Council on Global Affairs event, Emanuel reflected on his tenure as the U.S. Ambassador to Japan and hinted at future public service roles.
Emanuel has openly criticized current Chicago leadership, emphasizing foundational priorities such as “safe streets, strong schools, stable finances.”
While Emanuel has not confirmed specific plans, discussions suggest he is considering roles such as Governor of Illinois or a U.S. Senate seat, especially with potential vacancies on the horizon.
Emanuel’s previous tenure as mayor was marked by both achievements and controversies, including his handling of the Laquan McDonald case, which continues to influence public opinion.
Emanuel’s recent activities, combined with his strategic critiques, indicate a possible re-engagement with Chicago’s political landscape, though he remains non-committal about his exact intentions.
While I’d love to have Rahmbo back in the saddle of “The Man in 5”, I think he has too much Laquan Macdonald baggage to win. I hope he puts his immense fundraising prowess and clout with the business community behind a Hispanic candidate and sets his political sights on a Senate or perhaps even a presidential bid (much better than JB).
The time for action is now
Our conservative and moderate voices must become activists. We must devote our time, talent, and funds to the cause. The CTU, DSA, and other leftist extremists have hijacked our beloved city. They are driving Chicago off a fiscal cliff.
We must grab the wheel before it’s too late.
