What do migration trends and Chicago Police arrest records reveal?
The Chicago Police Department (CPD) has maintained its arrest records in electronic format dating back to the 1990s. For those who are seeking records prior to 1990, there is going to be some paper required, but electronically, CPD maintains over 6.5 million records.
Going back 25 years, the number of arrests made by CPD in the early part of the century was fairly consistent. Between 1999 and 2009 the number annual arrests remained steady between 250,000 and 300,000.
In 2007, however, arrests peaked at 295,876. In the years following, arrests trended downward, and a ten-year decline bottomed out with 142,090 arrests in 2016. This is not a measure of crime — either real or perceived — in Chicago. It is just a matter of arithmetic: In 2016 CPD arrested fewer than half of the number of people it had 10 years earlier.
Following the drop to 142, 090 arrests in 2016, arrests leveled. At the time, one could assume a new normal have developed. In 2019, arrests rose to nearly 159,000, but by 2020, Chicago was being ravaged by COVID and a mere 97,000 arrests were made. In one-year period, arrests dropped by a third.
Arrests in Chicago continued to drop in 2021 with fewer than 75,000 arrests. Since 2021, the total number of arrests has slowly risen. In 2023, CPD recorded 91,652 arrests made. Thus far, in 2024, Chicago Police have catalogued 63,554 total arrests through July31.
A deep dive into CPD records reveals that Police note the birthplace of those whom it arrests in official reports. It is therefore possible to calculate the number and percentages of people that CPD arrests who were born outside the country.
Looking at the raw data, CPD records show that over the last 15 years, from 2009 – 2020, the number of people arrested who were born outside of the United States had fallen from 30,273 to 10,240 respectively. And this is in line — it syncs — with what we already know: There were fewer arrests over this range of time.
However, things get really interesting in 2021. In the 11 years spanning 2010 – 2020 the percentage of foreign-born arrestees never rose above 12 percent. The peak is 2014 with 11.9 percent. In 2020 it was 10.5 percent. Then, as if there was a sudden change in policy, the rate jumps over three percentage points (and greater than 30 percent) to 13.6 percent in 2021.
A trend that continued, the rate of foreign-born arrestees rose to 18.7 percent in 2022, and in 2023, it continued to rise steadily to 24.9 percent. Through July of this year, it is running at 31.9 percent. In sum, over the last three-year period, the rate at which CPD arrests foreign-born individuals has nearly tripled.
As everyone knows, people come to Chicago from all over the world. In fact, CPD’s records list 238 different countries of origin for arrestees. Nevertheless, there are a few countries that contribute more than others.
In the last 15 years, while Mexico and Puerto Rico have seen a steady decline in the number of people arrested by CPD, individuals originating from countries like Ecuador, Colombia, and particularly Venezuela have been arrested in record numbers in Chicago.
Consider that in 2009, CPD arrested nearly 20,000 people from Mexico. Last year that number was less than 4,000. Similarly, the number of arrestees from Puerto Rico fell from nearly 2002 less than 500.
Also noteworthy is the incredible jump in the number of people arrested for whom CPD is unable to determine a place of birth. That number is now five times what it was 10 years ago.
If the Y-axis on that chart is reduced, greater detail at the bottom is exposed. Last year, individuals born in Venezuela accounted for 2,030 of CPD’s arrests. In the first seven months of 2024, the number has more than doubled to 4,656.
Reducing the axis further, it is easier to see the contributions from Columbia, Guatemala, and Ecuador. In 2023 the three nations contributed 457, 352, and 847 respectively to the arrest totals.
There is also a markable shift in the makeup of foreign-born arrestees over the last decade. In 2014, Colombia contributed to 0.24 percent of foreign arrests. Today, the total rests at 2.25 percent. The most dramatic change is with Venezuela, which accounted for less than 0.1 percent of foreign-born individuals in 2014, whereas today that number is nearly 23 percent.
Focusing solely on arrests of people from Venezuela thus far this year, data shows the following:
- 23 cases of identity theft
- 6 cases possessing a weapon on the CTA
- 25 DUIs
- 31 cases of causing an accident & fleeing the scene
- > 650 cases of driving without insurance
- >1000 cases of driving without a license
- 52 assaults
- > 150 batteries (mostly domestic)
- > 325 thefts
- 12 cases of unlawful use of a weapon
- 30 cases of obstructing an officer
- 4 murders in the first degree
It is certainly true that the majority of arrests made by CPD are of people born in the United States. This, obviously, makes perfect sense because they represent the vast majority of the people living within Chicago. However, if this trend continues, it appears that this year will be the first year in which foreign-born individuals will account for over one-third of people arrested. That is quite a milestone.
Undeniably, CPD’s data reflects an influx of a population which is causing considerable mischief and mayhem within our fair city. It seems obvious that this influx comes with a considerable cost, and there is more to it than the direct costs of housing, food, and medical care. Moreover, there is more to it than the indirect costs of having CFD and CPD respond and process all of these events.
There are the intangible soft costs of when your child is involved in a hit-and-run with a drunk driver, or your favorite grocery store must increase prices (or closes) because of theft, or when someone breaks into your garage and OEMC refuses to dispatch an officer because they are all busy dealing with all this other nonsense.
One thing is for certain: The rise in crimes committed by illegals is a problem few are willing to discuss.
Author’s note: This data consists of all 6.5 million arrest records. For those interested in seeing see any specific crosstabs, searches, results please contact us. The easiest way would be to use the form below to subscribe to our newsletter and simply reply to the welcome email you will receive.
